Friday, June 26, 2009

I take it back...

So it turns out that my picks actually weren't that bad, provided you had the intestinal fortitude to hold on through the bloodbath of late 2008 and early 2009. I went back and looked at how my picks fared up until last nights close and it turns out they weren't so bad after all. Am I saying my method was great, no, but i guess it goes to show that if you have solid companies that you believe in you're best not to panic and sell out at the smallest setback.

So lets review:

Ticker % of Port Price px_last Return
AER 4.30% 7 7.14 2.0%
AKS 8.40% 12.8 19.49 52.3%
DE 6.10% 40.3 41.65 3.3%
EBAY 7.80% 17.1 17.22 0.7%
GE 6.20% 19.5 11.78 -39.6%
JBL 4.60% 7 7.04 0.6%
KBR 5.00% 16.6 18.58 11.9%
MTW 8.30% 12.81 5.19 -59.5%
NOV 8.50% 24.6 33.33 35.5%
UTX 7.80% 50.25 51.39 2.3%
Weighted Average:

1.7%

Now lets compare that with the Dow & S&P over the same timeframe:
From

2 other things stand out:

1. Never underestimate how much financial exposure GE has
2. Never underestimate how much debt a company has (and if they are about to breach debt covenants) -- I'm looking at you here MTW

Good Luck!

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